eSTREAM have just put my paper online: Truncated differential cryptanalysis of five rounds of Salsa20 (PDF) (discussion, Wikipedia on Salsa20). This doesn’t break the whole cipher, just a seriously reduced version.
Experimentation played a key role in finding this result. I found the first differential by writing a short Python program that implemented a pretty naive differential-characteristic finding strategy. But when I went to test experimentally that the characteristic worked, I found it was there with eight times the frequency I expected. Further experimentation showed that this was due to clustering differential trails resulting in the same characteristic. From there, it was straightforward to just experimentally count the occurrence of lots of characteristics, and then it makes sense to use lots of them to make the attack far more effective. As a result, many fewer differential pairs are required.
The discovery of trails whose probability is not correctly predicted by theory was also a great and exciting surprise. I’m now thinking about how to investigate how to account for these discrepancies; once we can account for them, maybe we can make use of them to build more powerful attacks.